Saturday 25 July 2015

Iran Nuclear Deal - A Threat To World Peace


              Albert Einstein — 'I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.' 
                  If The Treaty of Versailles sowed seeds of second world war the nuclear deal between Iran and west will be remembered for fourth. For long America and her friends are pursuing a dangerous and erratic foreign policy with questionable motives. Not long ago, Iran was deemed "Satan", harbinger of evil axis, genesis of all the trouble in middle east and in big U turn Americans are in haste to mend and rebuild ties now with Iran much to the chagrin of its trusted allies Israel & Sunni power house Saudi Arab. Foreign policy of Obama is an enigma riddled with inconsistencies if ever there is one. Obama in his first term snubbed India to appease and cozy up with China but after getting a cold shoulder response by Chinese he changed tract midway.

                 The terms of 159 page nuclear deal hailed by some commentators as path breaking, a diplomatic triumph is in my opinion is nothing short of debacle. In the end Iran will get $150 Billion and 10 years moratorium on enrichment of nuclear material one Atom bomb if Iran wants to pursue and have one. The Munich pact of 1938 hailed by British PM Neville Chamberlain as securing "peace for our time" only served Nazi cause by reinforcing there belief of highhanded tactics paying rich dividends. Iran nuclear deal has the danger of being judged the same by future historians. By kicking the can down the road,West has only delayed a decision in hope that the problem or issue will go away or somebody else will make the decision later, unfortunately its going to hound as Iran nuclear deal only reinforces belief of aspiring nuclear powers to get away with there demands sooner or later.

                There are many countries with ambitions of peaceful nuclear energy use supported by world powers but what makes Iran nuclear ambition dangerous is its clandestine nature,support to terrorist organizations like Hezbollah in Lebanon and threat of Iran to wipe out Israel from world map. These deadly connotations can't be brushed aside, in this particular case the ink hasn't dried yet and prominent voices of trampling America is reverberating from Iran. These ludicrous voices can't be ignored when world is sitting on tenterhooks and one shrill voice or action has the potential to kick start chain of events that will suck in not only entire middle east but inadvertently and reluctantly whole world.

                The paradigm shift in American foreign policy towards Iran isn't easy to decipher as yet but emergence of deadly organizations like ISIS(Daesh) ,unstoppable flow of sunni volunteers from across the globe and inability of America to weed out and confront such elements might have prompted America to forge deal with Iran. American and Iranian interest coincided in Iraq and Syria where both of them were reluctant partners fighting against ISIS onslaught. The unsuccessful attempt by vested interests(American & Saudi) to topple government of Bashar al-Assad was not the single instance when Iranian and American interests collided, but Hezbollah and Israeli war of 2006 at Lebanon and frequent skirmishes between the two warring parties often put Americans and Iranians at loggerheads.
              
               The resilience of Iranian economy against sanctions and support of Russia and China in UNSC has blunted American attempts to throttle Iran and bring it to negotiating table. Moreover sanctions and embargo didn't succeed with minuscule economies of North Korea,Cuba and deter them from capitulating or going nuclear so expecting Iran to succumb to sanctions was always foolhardy as Iranian economy is the 17th largest in the world.Though 60%or Iranian economy is dependent on sale of gas & oil and plummeting crude prices, sanctions dented it severely but it wasn't crumbling. Interestingly it was America that supported and started nuclear Iranian nuclear program in 1950s. 

              This nuclear deal between 5 UNSC council members and Germany (P5+1) with Iran at best will only slow down its march towards Atomic Bomb. The provision of inspection isn't full proof as Iran has conceded to the demand of ope-ended inspections.In the end this deal which seems to be a ploy of west to turn foe to friend will help Iran emerge as a formidable power with robust economy and nuclear weapons.The troublesome part of deal is if Iran decides to abandon deal with threat of sanctions gone only option of all out war will remain.

               It would be naive to assume Iran didn't have covert nuclear installations and according to reports from IAEA Iran needs approximately a year to make one atomic bomb,but with covert operational installations this time can be vastly reduced. This deal will induce other Gulf countries to embark on vehemently seeking nuclear quest. The sectarian fault lines and conflicts among Shia block(Iran ,Syria,Iraq, Yemen) and Sunni block(Saudi Arab,Egypt etc) is brewing rapidly and in this explosive environment of distrust and mutual conflict it would only be a matter of time when whole middle east will be consigned to flames sucking other countries as well.

               

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