Thursday 29 October 2015

Middle Eastern Quagmire

                            By observing news emanating from Syrian conflict, it seems Russian intervention will not only turn the tables for Assad's opposition but will totally decimate the terror organizations who now boast and brag about country they hold.It is for the first time in human existence that a group of thugs now have a country to run and openly mock every civilized person through glorifying barbaric acts in open defiance of rules respected worldwide. Terrorists have carved a country for themselves out of Iraq and Syria without tacit understanding with west is unthinkable.
                           On paper West doesn't seems to be any sensible policy for middle east. Covert vicious  support to terrorists by west in dislodging regimes all around globe and middle east in particular is diabolic. Interestingly the mess in Syria started with the Arab spring of 2011 that swept Tunisia ,Egypt ,Libya,Yemen ,Jordan Bahrain and reached Syria.In the garb of spreading democracy Western participation was evident in all places and wherever required it didn't shied away from using force and installing puppet regimes (Libya,Egypt). The puppet regimes of Iraq,Afghanistan only stoked sectarian divide and mobilized support for extremist organizations.
                            After tearing apart established regimes through nefarious designs , segregating terrorists is another ploy of west. Providing men and material support to terror organization(Al-nusra an ally in Syria while Al-quaida a foe in Iraq) in one country while confronting same terror organization in another is a western bluff that is caught and laid bare by Russia .The turmoil in Syria is a conspiracy by west to dislodge Assad government and replace it with one accommodating to western interest as in Iraq.There is a real risk that Syria becomes a haven for terrorism worse than Afghanistan in the 1990s..For last 3 years we have watched Syria descend into the abyss and as it is going down with casualties touching 250,000 people and over 1 million in refugees .

                              It is in this scenario Russian entry into the muddle is fiercely opposed by West and its allies.For Russia, Assad is a valuable, long-time ally who offers Russia a foothold in the Middle East(naval base), the intervention is about something much larger — ensuring Russia’s influence in the region and its place at the high table at a time when  Russia itself was struggling under Western sanctions, an ailing economy and diplomatic isolation as a result of its annexation of Crimea and its role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine
                              Assad now controls roughly quarter of Syrian territory and is quickly losing control over it making Russian intervention imminent .Terrorists operating in Syria include Islamic State, the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, other jihadists seen as moderate by West and is fighting under the banner of the "Free Syrian Army".With Russian air support, the Syrian army backed by Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iranian fighters and other Shia militias is waging ground offensives against terrorists .

                             On paper, West is attacking ISIS while supporting other "moderate" terrorists is laughable. The infighting among NATO members to support or fight Kurds through airstrikes only increases the confusion.  In all this confusion, it isn’t surprising that the coalition’s results against the self-proclaimed Islamic State have been lackluster. The unchanged supremacy of ISIS and capability to hold territory under its influence also eroded credibility of Western plan (if they had any at the first place). Russia on the other hand  makes little distinction among Islamist terrorist groups and is determined to restore Russia's power and prestige in the Middle East & Russian influence will increase by leaps and bounds if Shia regime in Iraq also comes under Russian umbrella (safety net).
                                The fact is manner in which Middle eastern societies are developed replacing a dictator only leads to chaos.Its not the end but beginning of extremely difficult volatile situation . With no basic institutions ,poor governance and oppressive tyrant regimes only unifying factor becomes religion The failure of religion to develop a working relationship with governance adds to chaos. Toxic religious sermons blaming miserable present to exploitation by other civilizations makes a venomous environment for hate filled youngsters who vent anger through terror acts taking refuge of twisted religious texts.
                       Truth is whole of Middle east is passing through a huge painful transitory period and root causes of all its agony lies within and not outside the region. Terrorist organizations cannot match the wrath of supremacy of Russian machinery and the race to finish the terror foothold has started in Syria but true defeat of Islamic terror will be if venomous ideology is defeated,meanwhile western governments should refrain from muddling in internal matters of sovereign countries. The hypocrisy of West in spreading "Democracy" can be easily understood by dwelling in the past when CIA toppled democratically elected government of Guatemala in 1954.


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