Thursday, 29 October 2015

Middle Eastern Quagmire

By watching the news coming out of the Syrian conflict, it seems Russia’s intervention will not only tilt the balance against Assad’s opposition but may also crush the terror groups that proudly claim the land they rule. For the first time in history, a band of extremists has seized territory and now runs it like a country, openly mocking the civilized world by celebrating barbarism. The rise of these terror outfits across Iraq and Syria would have been impossible without some form of Western tolerance—silent or otherwise.
On paper, the West does not seem to have a sensible Middle East policy. Its covert support for extremist groups to overthrow governments around the world, especially in the Middle East, has been dangerous and destructive. The Syrian crisis began with the 2011 Arab Spring that swept through Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain, and eventually Syria. Under the banner of “spreading democracy,” the West involved itself everywhere, even using force when needed to install friendly regimes (as seen in Libya and Egypt). Earlier puppet setups in Iraq and Afghanistan only deepened sectarian divides and fueled support for extremist movements.
After dismantling established governments, the West used another tactic - labeling and dividing terrorists according to convenience. Supporting one group in Syria (like Al-Nusra) while fighting its ally in Iraq (Al-Qaeda) shows the double-standard, which Russia has now exposed. The chaos in Syria is largely a Western attempt to remove Assad and replace him with a government loyal to their interests, much like Iraq. Syria now risks becoming a terror haven worse than Afghanistan in the 1990s. In the last three years, the country has collapsed further, with nearly 250,000 dead and more than a million refugees escaping the war.
In this setting, Russia’s entry is fiercely opposed by the West and its allies. For Russia, Assad is a long-standing partner who provides a strategic foothold in the Middle East, including a crucial naval base. But the intervention is also about something bigger—restoring Russian influence at a time when the country was under Western sanctions, economic strain, and diplomatic isolation after the Crimea annexation and involvement in eastern Ukraine.                          
                         
Assad now controls barely a quarter of Syrian territory and is steadily losing ground, making Russian involvement almost unavoidable. The terror groups in Syria include ISIS, the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, and other jihadist factions that the West calls “moderate” and supports under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army. With Russian airpower, the Syrian army backed by Hezbollah, Iranian fighters, and other Shia militias is now pushing harder on the ground.
On paper, the West claims to be fighting ISIS while supporting “moderate” rebels, which looks absurd. Even NATO members cannot agree among themselves some support the Kurds, others attack them. With such contradictions, it’s no surprise the coalition has performed poorly against ISIS. The terror group’s continued strength and ability to hold territory have badly damaged whatever Western strategy existed. Russia, meanwhile, does not bother separating one extremist group from another and is focused on restoring its power in the region. If the Shia government in Iraq also turns towards Moscow for protection, Russian influence will grow dramatically.
The truth is that given the way Middle Eastern societies are structured, removing a dictator usually leads to chaos, not peace. It marks the beginning of a very difficult and unstable period. With weak institutions, poor governance, and harsh rulers, the only unifying element becomes religion. When religion fails to work with governance, the situation worsens. Extreme religious sermons, which blame outside civilizations for local problems, create a toxic environment. Young people filled with anger and frustration get sucked into violence, hiding behind distorted religious teachings.                           
In reality, the entire Middle East is going through a long and painful transition, and the roots of its struggle lie mostly within the region. Terror groups will eventually lose to superior Russian military power, and the fight to eliminate them has already begun in Syria. But the real victory will come only when their poisonous ideology is defeated. Meanwhile, Western nations must stop interfering in the internal matters of sovereign countries. The West’s hypocrisy in promoting “democracy” becomes clear when we recall how the CIA toppled the democratically elected government of Guatemala in 1954                      


Image Courtesy: Google